In this particular case, Consumer Reports know what they're talking about. The part about do you feel lucky is correct, but it's the other way around. You're lucky if your extended warranty pays off. Here's a post I made on the other RAM forum in regards to this.
Extended warranties are always a gamble.
Basically, you're paying upfront for repairs that may never happen. For example, the 8 Year/100,000 Miles $0 deducible Mopar Maximum Care warranty currently costs $3,365 for a 2021 RAM 1500 with under 12,000 miles.
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So, in order for it to pay off, you would have to incur
more than $3,365 in repairs from year 3 to 8 for the basic portion and from year 5 to 8 for the powertrain portion, or until you exceed 100,000 miles, whichever comes first.
More than $3,365 in repairs may or may not happen in this time frame, especially now that FCA reduced the maximum warranty period to only 8 years (which is why they did that). Keep in mind that FCA knows from years and years of carefully recorded data precisely what all the repairs from all the extended warranties will cost them and then adds a sizable profit to calculate the cost of the policy. This means that
the majority of extended warranty purchasers will not receive a payout greater than the cost of the warranty. It doesn't matter which term plan or deductible you choose, FCA precisely calculates the price for each to ensure that they always make a sizable profit overall.
The $100 and $200 dollar deductible warranties are less expensive to buy upfront, but FCA has carefully calculated those too to be just as profitable. The total amount of deductions cost as much or more than the up-front price over the life of the warranties overall. Again, I'm talking
overall, not anyone's specific individual experience. Some will win, but most must lose.
For the minority of those who do receive back more than they paid, they'll be very happy and recommend these warranties to everyone. For the majority who lost money on them, they'll be pissed off and are likely to keep this bad experience to themselves. No one brags about losing money.
So, it's a gamble, and just like real gambling, the house
always wins. Companies using this business model must always take in more than they pay out. That's what makes casinos, insurance companies, lotteries, and extended warranties a very profitable business for the owners but a considerable risk for the customers.
I'm not telling anyone not to buy one, I'm just trying to convey what the actual odds are. There is still a chance that it may pay off for you, especially if you drive your truck hard, pull a heavy trailer, or do anything else that might wear the vehicle out faster. The old 12 year and lifetime warranties were a much better bet, which is exactly why you can't get them anymore.