But if you have weight Distribution some weight will be put back on the axles of the trailer. This is a fact.
There was a link to a YouTube video here comparing air bags versus weight Distribution.
You say you'd be over by 200 lbs. You'd be putting about 300 back on the trailer so you'd be under.
Thank for the link, I'll spend some time when I have a chance reading through it...
I've seen a 1/3rd tossed around as an 'easy' answer... but your scenario, I would have enough to accommodate two people and less than 100 lbs of cargo, and there is no buffer/wiggle room for mistakes.
The only way you are really going to know is by taking it to get weighed... and that only works for that configuration.