FWIW, I spoke with a dealer/salesman and they said that FCA told them yesterday that:
1) The published reopening date of the factories of May 18th isn't 100%. In reality may not be able to open up for 2-4 weeks after that.
2) The factories cut-off date for producing 2020's is beginning of July. So, any order that comes in May/June will be built as a 2020. Any after that will be 2021.
3) FCA isn't allowing dealer trades right now (for some reason)
4) They aren't really getting any new vehicles until the factories start churning them out. Maybe a few might trickle in here and there from builds that were completed before the shut down, but at least this dealer doesn't foresee them getting any massive amounts of inventory until probably mid/late July or August. So kind of what you see on lots is what you get for a little while. (although i have seen some new trucks come in to various dealers via Ram's corporate website)
Don't know this guy from Adam, so unsure if it's 100% truthful or not, but passing on either way
This seems to hold up the supply side theory that less inventory will hold up prices and reduce incentives - for now. Right now there are people who can afford/take a risk on buying a new vehicle at this time, but those numbers are dwindling as they buy and the limited supply shrinks. This will be a constantly re-balancing as buyers buy and dealers/manufactures adjust discounts/incentives/financing.
Once the factory starts pumping out vehicles, will there be a demand to meet the level of supply? I don't think this will be an OPEC balancing act where manufactures carefully produce just enough vehicles to meet demand.
Ultimately I think manufactures will each say they are in the car making business and they have to make cars to make money, and that dealers are in the car selling business and they need to sell what the manufactures make. The interesting part will be what manufactures will do to help dealers overcome buyer resistance and spur consumer demand.
All of the manufactures will be churning out vehicles to maximize their own profit. And each will need to devise incentive, financing and leasing strategies that will help them out sell their competitors much the way FCA recently out-incentived Chevy/GM. Hopefully for us buyers that battle will result in a new round of large incentives.