The first quote, 20k, came from CarMax from three months ago. The second quote, 16.5k, came from Carmax yesterday. The offer is only good for a week. They know about the damage and still gave me those offers. I also collected 3k for diminished value from the at-fault party’s insurance company. I‘m thinking the 3.5k that I lost in these 3 months is just a sign of the used car market cooling off a little bit. I went around to other dealerships and their offers were significantly less than CarMax’s offer. I figured going to my dealer with my car now would be pointless considering that the market is changing so rapidly, who knows what’ll happen in those three weeks until I take delivery of the vehicle.
I think so too (market cooling off). It's been insane all during COVID, recession fears are popping that bubble. Also things slow down a bit in winter/around the holidays anyway.
I suspect you're right that the dealer isn't going to come close enough to Carfax to make it worthwhile even with the tax benefit (and they've already told you as much). You can bet they're watching the market too, and aren't going to get upside down on trades if they want to balance the books.
Honestly unless that particular car is fully loaded, like I said 16.5K is a strong offer for one that
hasn't been wrecked. Let alone...
Like I also said, nobody can tell you what's right for you except you. Good luck