Parts shortage... When will it end?

[BoilerPigg]

So it's been 3 weeks Ive been waiting for an exhaust manifold for a 2019 1500 Laramie Hemi. Dealer said its an improved design due to the "issues" being had. He did mention however, that isn't the real reason it's slow in coming. Across the board, it's raw materials, chips, labor, shipping and so on. At one point they were saying we'll be out of the woods to speak by 2023. Now it may not be until 2025... I'm now wondering about putting together my own little stash of parts just in case...

 

[mikeru82]

It's anyone's guess. No one can tell you when it will end completely. my guess is that things will incrementally improve over the next couple years. But some say things will never get back to the way they were. Covid, political change, world economies, environmentalists, new technologies...all these affect the supply chain. As far as your manifolds go, my guess is that you'll have them within 6 months.

 

[theblet]

When people stop with the ridiculous Covid rules and lockdowns

 

[jl13]

Covid continues to be a main issue. For example
Specificcally and currently in China. Our company just lost several big orders because there are lockdowns and the few that are open are down to as low as 20% working capacity.
We can bring production into the U.S. but raw materials come from China.
Going to other countries would be competing for a production line that is probably already over capacity.
War in Ukraine is having a similar effect, having companies looking for other places to produced goods and competing for labor and resources.
So several chain reactions

 

[66Fuelie]

I think it's going to be a while if it ever comes back to where it was due to reasons above. I repair injection molding machines and do industrial robotics, I have one machine that has been waiting months for a CPU repair that should have taken a day. My industry is slowing down some but still somewhat steady as far as my work is concerned.
Tom

 

[theblet]

Same here. When I order network equipment, some stuff has a 6 month to a year lead time. Unbelievable.

Speaking of China, just think if everyone’s waiting for EV parts and materials which 90% come from china. Oooff

 

[firecadet613]

It'll be here for a lot longer. I do new construction and right now some electrical panels and switchgear have a 52+ week lead time.

China is experiencing a huge covid surge right now and with Chinese New Year around the corner it'll only get worse...

 

[theblet]

It'll be here for a lot longer. I do new construction and right now some electrical panels and switchgear have a 52+ week lead time.

China is experiencing a huge covid surge right now and with Chinese New Year around the corner it'll only get worse...

They really are. Their Covid zero policy was a complete failure. They should have let people catch the virus and recover from it. Then they would have natural immunity and life would go on.

 

[bill-e]

A few months ago while talking to my dealer I asked that question and he said that he's heard chatter in their teleconferences that it won't get back to normal before 2030.
Of course if the China-Taiwan situation escalates like they expect within a couple of years, it may be much longer than that.

 

[djevox]

Isn’t TSMC working on a chip plant in the US?
I heard from multiple places over the last couple months that some of the chip shortages are due to the auto industry having chips with lower profit margins, so chip makers prioritized high margin consumer electronics chips. The sources are saying they believe this resulted in a glut of higher margin chips while the equipment isn’t there/operational to provide the low margin auto chips. Don’t know how much of that is actually true.

 

[GKIII]

We will be experiencing a bullwhip effect for years. For those not versed in supply chain terminology:

Bullwhip effect - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[bigdodge]

oct

TSMC says efforts to rebuild US semiconductor industry are doomed to fail | AppleInsider

Apple supplier TSMC believes that US efforts to rebuild chip manufacturing at home are doomed to fail, as it finds itself caught between China and the United States in a tech cold war.

appleinsider.com

nov

TSMC to Unveil Plans for Another US Chip Plant, WSJ Says - BNN Bloomberg

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. is laying the groundwork for a second US plant next to a $12 billion complex it’s building, a major expansion that will boost American efforts to bring advanced chipmaking home if it goes ahead.

www.bnnbloomberg.ca

 

[66Fuelie]

Even with building a new facility it takes a lot of time to create a enviorment for actually making the part.
I have only been in one plant that makes chips and they told me you just don't make the chip overnight once you start production, it is a time consuming process. Maybe things have gotten better im not sure.
Tom

 

[Aseras]

It'll only end when it costs them substanially more to not rely on the other side of the world for cheap labor and parts. If every single vehicle waiting on parts was forced buyback under lemon laws and it was going to destroy them they'd actually go back to having inventory and stocking parts instead of relying on just in time inventory.

 

[lapoolboy]

When folks start voting better.

 

[Sascwatch]

15 weeks today for the NoX sensor I have been waiting for, and still no ETA. I have now had a check engine light for more than half of my trucks life.

 

[djevox]

15 weeks today for the NoX sensor I have been waiting for, and still no ETA. I have now had a check engine light for more than half of my trucks life.

Have you not been able to drive it that long?

 

[Sascwatch]

Have you not been able to drive it that long?

I’m kind of surprised I haven’t gotten the dreaded countdown to limp mode yet, but it’s still trucking along. When the part was ordered there were 19 trucks listed as VOR (vehicle off road) for the same part, before Christmas there were still 17.

Worst part is no remote start, and I’m about to move up north 1500km away from the dealer who ordered the part. If it’s not in before I move I was told I can try a dealer to dealer transfer, and if they won’t do it I’ll have to get back in line. Temps have already hit -40 up there and I’m not happy about no remote start.

Contacting customer care tomorrow to see what is going on, and I’ve already been in touch with CAMVAP (Canadas lemon law) in regards to this.

 

[BoilerPigg]

Wow. I think I may have sold my 2011 Ram 2500 too early. That beast didn't cost me much except for routine fluid changes, disc, pads and a tailpipe. When I sold it to a buddy of mine, it still rode as solidly as the day I bought her...

 

[Cbty2050]

15 weeks today for the NoX sensor I have been waiting for, and still no ETA. I have now had a check engine light for more than half of my trucks life.

Is is the downstream or upstream NOX sensor? There are some reports of pinched wiring for the rear sensor wiring.