Idahoktm
Spends too much time on here
Nah, the diameter does not result in that big of a hit. I have 33's and I get about 17.5 mpg with an 80/20 city/highway split. No way could I get 21 mpg with stock tires. However, if you go to a 33" LT tire, you will certainly take that big of a hit. In that case, the weight of the tire is the biggest culprit.As mentioned, everything you stated has played a role, but the biggest is the diameter of the tire and the type of tire it is. Larger tire and higher rolling resistance of the tread will both play a big roll in your lower mpg.
1/2 " increase usually results in a 1-2 mpg loss. So going a full 1" in diameter and losing 3.5 mpg is about right.