It's probably a good time to explain this, for the benefit of everyone who has joined recently.
On the left side of the chart, I'm showing all of the users who have submitted their VINs. It shows the timeline of orders (VINs are assigned sequentially as they're taken). So we can see how many orders are being entered in the system as a function of time. VINs start at 100,000 (and are currently up to ~72,000). Stellantis does not publish this data, so we are crowd-sourcing it.
On the right side of the chart is an
idealistic timeline of production, and it's based on several
idealistic assumptions:
- Production will start 9/13 (hopefully this is true)
- SHAP will produce 6,000 trucks/week (this is based on a rough running average of what they produced on the 2021 run). Their goals are higher than this (more like 7,000/week), plus they're going to 7-day weeks. So I assume they're expecting to produce as much as 8,000+ trucks/week in the near future. But to be conservative, I'm still assuming their historical capacity of 6,000/week.
- Orders will arrive at dealerships approximately 3-4 weeks from the time they enter production (this is also based on historical averages, as reported by users in the 2021 run).
- Orders will be produced sequentially by VIN. This is absolutely not going to happen, but there's no other way to project the production. As I've mentioned before, we will see a scatter-graph of trucks being produced up-and-down the range of VINs.
Everything on the right is "fortune telling", and will be updated as reality sets in. The main idea with this chart is to give everyone some sort of expectation as to when they should expect their trucks (based on as much logic/knowledge as I can find).
The thin blue line represents the projected "Build Sheet" date. That is, when your truck enters production.
The thick blue line represents the projected "Arrival" date at your dealer.
So,
@GandB21, in your case, with a VIN of 120423, the chart predicts that you would see your truck built around 10/7, with delivery taking place between 10/30-11/6. If you get it earlier than that, you'll be one of the lucky ones.
As production begins,
@triple_B will know which build sheets are produced on a daily basis (he has the ability to scan for them, as well as window stickers).
Delivery at dealers is only known by you users. So continuing with the crowd-sourcing concept, I hope that everyone will follow up for the benefit of the group - and let us all know when your truck eventually shows up at your dealer.
