Yea, I don't know what % of MPG drop would result from a 1.7% drop in fuel efficiency (BTU).
I agree it might not be the biggest issue. I seem to get about 1.5 - 2 MPG less in the winter. The
EPA study also indicated a 5.3% average decline in MPG just due to a drop in temperature from 77 - 20. I'm sure this is due to the added energy required to push a vehicle through the denser air.
For me personally, denser air and less efficient fuel blend will be the only two factors that are likely to apply to reduce my MPG. I tend to idle more in the summer than I do in the winter because I am less tolerant to heat than I am moderate winter temperatures in St Louis. I also tend to run higher tire pressure in the winter because the low pressure light really annoys me so I plan for 36 PSI on the coldest days which results in 40 psi on most days. I park in a garage so fluid temps don't get very cold.